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The case for PGNY at $150
As of Wednesday, November 3rd, 2021, PGNY trade around $60. However, I believe that in the next couple of years it should be valued at a minimum of $150 per share. I am trying to make the bullish case for it.
Population / Potential customers
There are a few macro-tendencies at play here. More than half of fertility treatments happen when women are between 35 and 40. Millennials, the largest US population, is in that group age, or will turn 35 in the next 10 years. Indeed, the 2 largest age groups in the US are people between 25 and 29, and people between 30 and 34.
The next 10 years will then be very important for fertility providers are more people will want fertility services. Other sociological factors to consider might be the increase in infertility rates, general poor health of the US population, as well as the desire of potential parents to have babies later in life.
The number of fertility treatment cycles is already booming
Showing the potential for this market, the number of ART cycles (that is, IVF IUI, or other fertility treatments) increased from 230k to 330k for one year in the US between 2015 and 2019. We don’t have the numbers for 2020 yet, as it takes a while to gather the data from every clinic.